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Fc Luanda vs São Salvador

Sun 08 Nov 16:00 0 minutes final 1–0 · settled
Sã
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 4.5 goals · 89.2%
why
• league PROVEN (75.8%, n=33)
• type ledger 82% (n=109)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 75.8% of 33 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 59.0%)
draws 31.7% of matches
team history 10/13 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U4.5: 81.7% hit (n=109, 90d ledger)
measured band: 84.3% (n=89)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
89.2%
Under 4.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
39.9%
Draw
29.7%
Away win
30.4%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:26
scoring fit λ 1.32 / μ 1.12
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 261 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
30.4%
3.29x 49.0% n=261 risky lost
Draw
29.7%
3.37x 49.0% n=261 risky lost
top Home win
39.9%
2.5x 49.0% n=261 risky won
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Fc Luanda 1W / 0D / 0L · momentum Fc Luanda 0.67 ppg vs São Salvador 1.33 ppg
Fc Luanda · last 6
08 Nov · Girabola 1-0 W
01 Nov · Girabola 2-1 L
24 Oct · Girabola 1-1 D
18 Oct · Girabola 0-2 L
11 Oct · Girabola 1-2 L
19 Sep · Girabola 3-2 L
São Salvador · last 6
08 Nov · Girabola 1-0 L
01 Nov · Girabola 1-0 W
28 Oct · Girabola 1-0 L
18 Oct · Girabola 2-1 W
11 Oct · Girabola 0-0 D
20 Sep · Girabola 0-0 D
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Girabola Fc Luanda 1-0 São Salvador