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Super League 2
Apollon Pontou vs Panserraikos
Sun 08 Nov 18:00 0 minutes final 2–1 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Under 3.5 goals · 81.4%
book 1.50x · even 1.30-1.55x
why
• league PROVEN (69.6%, n=46)
• type ledger 72% (n=342)
• priced 1.50x - band hits ~65% (60d)
league track
proven · 69.6% of 46 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 55.2%)
draws 28.3% of matches
team history 11/16 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U3.5: 71.6% hit (n=342, 90d ledger)
measured band: 66.7% (n=81)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
81.4%
Under 3.5 goals
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Under 3.5 goals
solid (81.4%)
@ 08 Nov 17:26 · 1.50x
board also had Under 4.5 goals 90.2%
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
78.6%
Draw
16.5%
Away win
4.8%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:26
scoring fit λ 1.69 / μ 0.05
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 253 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
4.8%
|
20.79x | 56.1% n=253 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
16.5%
|
6.04x | 56.1% n=253 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
78.6%
|
1.27x | 56.1% n=253 | solid | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Apollon Pontou 1W / 0D / 0L
· momentum Apollon Pon… 1.17 ppg vs Panserraikos 1.17 ppg
Apollon Pontou · last 6
08 Nov · Super League 2
2-1
W
01 Nov · Super League 2
2-0
L
25 Oct · Super League 2
0-2
L
18 Oct · Super League 2
2-1
L
11 Oct · Super League 2
1-0
W
05 Oct · Super League 2
1-1
D
Panserraikos · last 6
08 Nov · Super League 2
2-1
L
01 Nov · Super League 2
5-0
L
28 Oct · Cup
0-1
L
25 Oct · Super League 2
3-2
W
18 Oct · Super League 2
0-0
D
10 Oct · Super League 2
2-1
W
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Super League 2
Apollon Pontou 2-1 Panserraikos
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