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EFL Trophy

Crawley Town vs Brentford U21

Tomorrow 21:30 1 day, 13 hours
Br
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 92.5%
why
• league PROVEN (90.0%, n=10)
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 90.0% of 10 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 59.6%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 19/14 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.6% (n=1945)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2519)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
92.5%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
49.2%
Draw
20.0%
Away win
30.8%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:54
scoring fit λ 2.04 / μ 1.58
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 131 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
30.8%
3.25x 47.3% n=131 risky
Draw
20.0%
4.99x 47.3% n=131 risky
top Home win
49.2%
2.03x 47.3% n=131 risky
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record · momentum Crawley Town 0.83 ppg vs Brentford U… 1.5 ppg
Crawley Town · last 6
08 Nov · FA Cup 2-0 L
31 Oct · League Two 0-1 W
24 Oct · League Two 1-1 D
20 Oct · League Two 2-3 L
17 Oct · League Two 2-1 L
10 Oct · League Two 2-2 D
Brentford U21 · last 6
06 Nov · Premier League 2 Divi… 0-2 L
02 Nov · Premier League Cup 1-2 W
26 Oct · Premier League 2 Divi… 3-4 W
18 Oct · Premier League 2 Divi… 1-2 L
10 Oct · Premier League Cup 4-2 W
06 Oct · EFL Trophy 7-1 L
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.