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Liga Nacional

Atletico Independiente vs Real Espana

Sun 08 Nov 01:15 0 minutes final 1–1 · settled
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 92.8%
why
• league AT_RISK (46.2%, n=13)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• league's published legs underperform
league track
at risk · 46.2% of 13 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 23.2%)
draws 26.7% of matches
team history 14/16 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 92.9% (n=4118)
night 00-06 kickoffs: 75.3% hit (n=473)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
92.8%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
16.6%
Draw
23.5%
Away win
59.9%
calibrated 09 Nov 00:19
scoring fit λ 0.89 / μ 1.88
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 235 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
top Away win
59.9%
1.67x 51.5% n=235 lean lost
Draw
23.5%
4.26x 51.5% n=235 risky won
Home win
16.6%
6.03x 51.5% n=235 risky lost
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 2 meetings — Atletico Inde… 0W / 2D / 0L · momentum Atletico In… 0.67 ppg vs Real Espana 1.83 ppg
Atletico Independiente · last 6
09 Nov · Liga Nacional 1-1 D
06 Nov · Liga Nacional 0-0 D
31 Oct · Liga Nacional 3-1 L
25 Oct · Liga Nacional 2-2 D
18 Oct · Liga Nacional 0-4 L
12 Oct · Liga Nacional 1-1 D
Real Espana · last 6
09 Nov · Liga Nacional 1-1 D
05 Nov · Liga Nacional 1-1 D
01 Nov · Liga Nacional 3-1 W
25 Oct · Liga Nacional 4-3 W
16 Oct · Liga Nacional 2-1 L
11 Oct · Liga Nacional 0-1 W
Head-to-head last 5
09 Nov 26 · Liga Nacional Atletico Indepe… 1-1 Real Espana
16 Aug 26 · Liga Nacional Real Espana 1-1 Atletico Indepe…