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Ekstraliga Women
Sleza Wroclaw Women vs Pogon Szczecin Women
Sat 07 Nov 19:30 0 minutes final 2–3 · settledPo
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 89.8%
why
• league OK (58.3%, n=12)
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 58.3% of 12 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 32.0%)
draws 21.7% of matches
team history 10/12 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 90.9% (n=339)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.4% hit (n=2540)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
89.8%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
15.5%
Draw
19.3%
Away win
65.2%
calibrated 07 Nov 18:02
scoring fit λ 1.28 / μ 2.64
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 11 Nov · 194 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
65.2%
|
1.53x | 62.4% n=194 | lean | won |
| Draw |
19.3%
|
5.17x | 62.4% n=194 | risky | lost |
| Home win |
15.5%
|
6.46x | 62.4% n=194 | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Sleza Wroclaw… 0W / 0D / 1L
· momentum Sleza Wrocl… 1.17 ppg vs Pogon Szcze… 1.5 ppg
Sleza Wroclaw Women · last 6
07 Nov · Ekstraliga Women
2-3
L
31 Oct · Ekstraliga Women
2-2
D
21 Oct · Ekstraliga Women
4-2
W
17 Oct · Ekstraliga Women
3-2
W
04 Oct · Ekstraliga Women
4-1
L
26 Sep · Ekstraliga Women
1-3
L
Pogon Szczecin Women · last 6
07 Nov · Ekstraliga Women
2-3
W
31 Oct · Ekstraliga Women
0-3
L
17 Oct · Ekstraliga Women
1-3
W
04 Oct · Ekstraliga Women
1-2
L
26 Sep · Ekstraliga Women
0-2
W
29 Aug · Ekstraliga Women
2-1
L
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · Ekstraliga Women
Sleza Wroclaw W… 2-3 Pogon Szczecin …
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