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Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

Uganda vs Botswana

Today 19:00 1 hour, 35 minutes
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 91.9%
why
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new league — not enough graded picks to rate
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 4/2 games (180d) · low data
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.4% hit (n=2540)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
91.9%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
66.1%
Draw
22.4%
Away win
11.4%
calibrated 11 Nov 17:02
scoring fit λ 2.23 / μ 0.88
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
11.4%
8.75x – risky
Draw
22.5%
4.45x – risky
top Home win
66.1%
1.51x – lean
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record · momentum Uganda 1.5 ppg vs Botswana 0.83 ppg
Uganda · last 6
05 Oct · Friendlies 1-1 D
02 Oct · Friendlies 0-2 W
29 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations… 1-0 W
24 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations… 1-1 D
30 Dec · Africa Cup of Nations 1-3 L
27 Dec · Africa Cup of Nations 1-1 D
Botswana · last 6
28 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations… 2-2 D
24 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations… 2-2 D
31 Mar · Friendlies 1-0 W
28 Mar · Friendlies 0-3 L
30 Dec · Africa Cup of Nations 0-3 L
27 Dec · Africa Cup of Nations 1-0 L
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.