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Premier League
Al Sahel vs Al Kuwait
Sun 08 Nov 18:40 0 minutes final 0–3 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Draw or Away · 93.0%
why
• league PROVEN (85.0%, n=20)
• type ledger 77% (n=658)
• priced 1.07x needs 93% to break even
league track
proven · 85.0% of 20 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 64.0%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 15/22 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-X2: 76.6% hit (n=658, 90d ledger)
measured band: 94.1% (n=34)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
93.0%
Draw or Away
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
7.0%
Draw
18.3%
Away win
74.7%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:28
scoring fit λ 0.78 / μ 2.60
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 31 Oct · 31 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
74.7%
|
1.34x | 67.7% n=31 | solid | won |
| Draw |
18.3%
|
5.47x | 67.7% n=31 | risky | lost |
| Home win |
7.0%
|
14.2x | 67.7% n=31 | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Al Sahel 0W / 0D / 1L
· momentum Al Sahel 0.17 ppg vs Al Kuwait 2.5 ppg
Al Sahel · last 6
08 Nov · Premier League
0-3
L
30 Oct · Premier League
3-2
L
24 Oct · Premier League
0-3
L
11 Oct · Premier League
0-4
L
06 Sep · Premier League
1-0
L
01 Sep · Premier League
0-0
D
Al Kuwait · last 6
08 Nov · Premier League
0-3
W
04 Nov · AFC Cup
2-3
L
28 Oct · AFC Cup
0-1
W
23 Oct · Premier League
2-6
W
19 Oct · Premier League
7-0
W
14 Oct · AFC Cup
3-1
W
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Premier League
Al Sahel 0-3 Al Kuwait
Tickets including this match