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Botola 2
Ittihad Khemisset vs Chabab Mohammédia
Sun 08 Nov 16:00 0 minutes final 4–0 · 2 won · 0 lostCh
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 87.3%
book 1.18x · short <1.30x
why
• league PROVEN (82.6%, n=23)
• type ledger 80% (n=1980)
• short price 1.18x
league track
proven · 82.6% of 23 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 62.9%)
draws 28.3% of matches
team history 7/14 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.9% hit (n=1980, 90d ledger)
measured band: 84.9% (n=292)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
87.3%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
LOW risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home, draw refunds
solid (83.2%)
@ 08 Nov 00:53 · 1.25x
pick won
Home or Draw
solid (87.3%)
@ 08 Nov 00:53 · 1.18x
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
62.9%
Draw
24.5%
Away win
12.7%
calibrated 08 Nov 00:53
scoring fit λ 1.77 / μ 0.67
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 01 Nov · 314 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
12.7%
|
7.9x | 41.1% n=314 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
24.5%
|
4.08x | 41.1% n=314 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
62.9%
|
1.59x | 41.1% n=314 | lean | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Ittihad Khemi… 1W / 0D / 0L
· momentum Ittihad Khe… 2.17 ppg vs Chabab Moha… 0.33 ppg
Ittihad Khemisset · last 6
08 Nov · Botola 2
4-0
W
01 Nov · Botola 2
1-1
D
25 Oct · Botola 2
2-1
W
18 Oct · Botola 2
1-0
L
10 Oct · Botola 2
2-1
W
03 Oct · Botola 2
0-1
W
Chabab Mohammédia · last 6
08 Nov · Botola 2
4-0
L
01 Nov · Botola 2
0-1
L
25 Oct · Botola 2
2-0
L
18 Oct · Botola 2
1-1
D
11 Oct · Botola 2
1-1
D
04 Oct · Botola 2
0-1
L
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Botola 2
Ittihad Khemiss… 4-0 Chabab Mohamméd…
Tickets including this match