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EFL Trophy
Crewe vs Wigan
Tomorrow 21:00 1 day, 16 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 78.1%
book 1.37x · even 1.30-1.55x
why
• league PROVEN (90.0%, n=10)
• type ledger 75% (n=2258)
• priced 1.37x - band hits ~65% (60d)
league track
proven · 90.0% of 10 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 59.6%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 22/21 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.1% hit (n=2258, 90d ledger)
measured band: 74.8% (n=938)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
78.1%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Safer
68.5%
Home or Draw
safest leg we would still back — lower variance, smaller payout.
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (78.1%)
@ 09 Nov 02:53 · 1.37x
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
46.6%
Draw
21.9%
Away win
31.5%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:53
scoring fit λ 1.61 / μ 1.27
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 131 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
31.5%
|
3.18x | 47.3% n=131 | risky |
| Draw |
21.9%
|
4.56x | 47.3% n=131 | risky |
| top Home win |
46.6%
|
2.15x | 47.3% n=131 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 10 meetings — Crewe 3W / 1D / 6L
· momentum Crewe 1.67 ppg vs Wigan 1.5 ppg
Crewe · last 6
07 Nov · FA Cup
2-1
W
31 Oct · League Two
1-1
D
24 Oct · League Two
5-1
L
20 Oct · League Two
2-0
L
17 Oct · League Two
3-2
W
10 Oct · League Two
0-1
W
Wigan · last 6
07 Nov · FA Cup
0-3
W
31 Oct · League One
3-2
W
27 Oct · League One
3-0
L
24 Oct · League One
2-1
L
20 Oct · League One
2-1
L
17 Oct · League One
1-0
W
Head-to-head last 5
15 Mar 22 · League One
Crewe 0-2 Wigan
15 Feb 22 · League One
Wigan 2-0 Crewe
17 Apr 21 · League One
Wigan 2-0 Crewe
10 Oct 20 · League One
Crewe 3-0 Wigan
06 Mar 04 · Championship
Wigan 2-3 Crewe