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EFL Trophy
Bristol Rovers vs Reading FC
Tomorrow 21:00 1 day, 16 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 78.3%
book 1.34x · even 1.30-1.55x
why
• league PROVEN (90.0%, n=10)
• type ledger 75% (n=2256)
• priced 1.34x - band hits ~65% (60d)
league track
proven · 90.0% of 10 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 59.6%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 22/25 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.0% hit (n=2256, 90d ledger)
measured band: 74.8% (n=936)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
78.3%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (78.3%)
@ 09 Nov 02:53 · 1.34x
board also had Over 1.5 goals 83.7%
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
41.3%
Draw
21.7%
Away win
37.0%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:53
scoring fit λ 1.55 / μ 1.46
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 131 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
37.0%
|
2.7x | 47.3% n=131 | risky |
| Draw |
21.7%
|
4.61x | 47.3% n=131 | risky |
| top Home win |
41.3%
|
2.42x | 47.3% n=131 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 12 meetings — Bristol Rovers 2W / 3D / 7L
· momentum Bristol Rov… 0.67 ppg vs Reading FC 1.67 ppg
Bristol Rovers · last 6
07 Nov · FA Cup
2-0
W
31 Oct · League Two
3-1
L
24 Oct · League Two
0-0
D
20 Oct · League Two
1-2
L
17 Oct · League Two
1-0
L
10 Oct · League Two
1-3
L
Reading FC · last 6
07 Nov · FA Cup
0-5
W
04 Nov · League One
2-0
L
31 Oct · League One
0-0
D
24 Oct · League One
2-1
W
21 Oct · League One
1-0
W
17 Oct · League One
1-0
L
Head-to-head last 5
26 Apr 25 · League One
Bristol Rovers 0-2 Reading FC
26 Oct 24 · League One
Reading FC 1-0 Bristol Rovers
09 Apr 24 · League One
Bristol Rovers 0-2 Reading FC
07 Nov 23 · League One
Reading FC 1-1 Bristol Rovers
20 Jan 01 · League One
Reading FC 1-0 Bristol Rovers