Ma
HOME
Frauen Bundesliga

Mainz 05 vs Stuttgart

Sun 08 Nov 17:00 0 minutes final 1–3 · 1 won · 0 lost
St
AWAY
back to predictions
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Draw or Away · 75.3%
book 1.48x · even 1.30-1.55x
why
• league PROVEN (78.9%, n=19)
• type ledger 77% (n=658)
• priced 1.48x - band hits ~65% (60d)
league track
proven · 78.9% of 19 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 56.7%)
draws 13.3% of matches
team history 12/12 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-X2: 76.6% hit (n=658, 90d ledger)
measured band: 77.3% (n=128)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
75.3%
Draw or Away
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Draw or Away solid (75.3%)
@ 08 Nov 17:27 · 1.48x
board also had Over 1.5 goals 85.3% pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
24.7%
Draw
19.8%
Away win
55.5%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:27
scoring fit λ 1.55 / μ 2.35
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 188 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
top Away win
55.5%
1.8x 66.5% n=188 lean won
Draw
19.8%
5.04x 66.5% n=188 risky lost
Home win
24.7%
4.05x 66.5% n=188 risky lost
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 2 meetings — Mainz 05 1W / 0D / 1L · momentum Mainz 05 0.5 ppg vs Stuttgart 1.5 ppg
Mainz 05 · last 6
08 Nov · Frauen Bundesliga 1-3 L
01 Nov · DFB Pokal - Women 0-2 L
25 Oct · Frauen Bundesliga 3-1 L
18 Oct · Frauen Bundesliga 0-5 L
03 Oct · Frauen Bundesliga 5-0 L
26 Sep · DFB Pokal - Women 1-6 W
Stuttgart · last 6
08 Nov · Frauen Bundesliga 1-3 W
30 Oct · DFB Pokal - Women 3-0 W
25 Oct · Frauen Bundesliga 0-3 L
18 Oct · Frauen Bundesliga 5-0 L
04 Oct · Frauen Bundesliga 0-4 L
26 Sep · DFB Pokal - Women 2-3 W
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Frauen Bundesliga Mainz 05 1-3 Stuttgart
22 Mar 26 · 2. Frauen Bundesliga Stuttgart 2-4 Mainz 05