HOME
CONCACAF Nations League

Bermuda vs St. Lucia

Today 23:00 5 hours, 11 minutes
AWAY
back to predictions
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Draw or Away · 75.2%
book 1.38x · even 1.30-1.55x
why
• type ledger 75% (n=659)
• priced 1.38x - band hits ~65% (60d)
• league is untracked (no graded ledger yet)
league track
new league — not enough graded picks to rate
draws 11.7% of matches
team history 5/4 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-X2: 74.8% hit (n=659, 90d ledger)
measured band: 75.8% (n=128)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.4% hit (n=2540)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
75.2%
Draw or Away
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Draw or Away solid (75.2%)
@ 11 Nov 17:02 · 1.38x
board also had Over 1.5 goals 86.9%
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
24.8%
Draw
20.6%
Away win
54.6%
calibrated 11 Nov 17:02
scoring fit λ 1.55 / μ 2.32
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 06 Nov · None matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
top Away win
54.6%
1.83x – risky
Draw
20.6%
4.86x – risky
Home win
24.8%
4.03x – risky
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Bermuda 0W / 0D / 1L · momentum Bermuda 0.0 ppg vs St. Lucia 2.25 ppg
Bermuda · last 6
06 Oct · CONCACAF Nations Leag… 1-2 L
03 Oct · CONCACAF Nations Leag… 4-1 L
29 Sep · CONCACAF Nations Leag… 5-2 L
25 Sep · CONCACAF Nations Leag… 1-2 L
06 Jun · Friendlies 3-0 L
26 Mar · Friendlies 2-0 L
St. Lucia · last 6
05 Oct · CONCACAF Nations Leag… 0-1 W
02 Oct · CONCACAF Nations Leag… 3-0 W
29 Sep · CONCACAF Nations Leag… 5-2 W
26 Sep · CONCACAF Nations Leag… 2-0 L
Head-to-head last 5
29 Sep 26 · CONCACAF Nations Leag… St. Lucia 5-2 Bermuda