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UEFA Nations League
Albania vs Finland
Tomorrow 21:45 1 day, 19 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Home, draw refunds · 72.5%
book 1.43x · even 1.30-1.55x
why
• type ledger 71% (n=63)
• priced 1.43x - band hits ~65% (60d)
• league is untracked (no graded ledger yet)
league track
new league — not enough graded picks to rate
draws 28.3% of matches
team history 6/6 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DNB-H: 71.4% hit (n=63, 90d ledger)
measured band: 75.1% (n=397)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2539)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
72.5%
Home, draw refunds
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home, draw refunds
solid (72.5%)
@ 10 Nov 23:55 · 1.43x
board also had Home or Draw 80.3%
Home or Draw
solid (80.3%)
@ 10 Nov 23:55 · 1.28x
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
51.9%
Draw
28.5%
Away win
19.7%
calibrated 10 Nov 23:55
scoring fit λ 1.63 / μ 0.93
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 107 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
19.7%
|
5.08x | 41.1% n=107 | risky |
| Draw |
28.5%
|
3.51x | 41.1% n=107 | risky |
| top Home win |
51.9%
|
1.93x | 41.1% n=107 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Albania 0W / 0D / 1L
· momentum Albania 1.5 ppg vs Finland 1.17 ppg
Albania · last 6
06 Oct · UEFA Nations League
2-1
W
03 Oct · UEFA Nations League
2-1
L
29 Sep · UEFA Nations League
0-3
W
26 Sep · UEFA Nations League
2-0
W
06 Jun · Friendlies
0-1
L
03 Jun · Friendlies
0-1
L
Finland · last 6
06 Oct · UEFA Nations League
1-0
L
03 Oct · UEFA Nations League
2-1
W
29 Sep · UEFA Nations League
0-0
D
26 Sep · UEFA Nations League
0-7
W
05 Jun · Friendlies
2-1
L
31 May · Friendlies
4-0
L
Head-to-head last 5
03 Oct 26 · UEFA Nations League
Finland 2-1 Albania