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Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

Senegal vs Sudan

Today 19:00 1 hour, 32 minutes
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 94.4%
why
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new league — not enough graded picks to rate
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 9/2 games (180d) · low data
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.6% (n=1957)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.4% hit (n=2540)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.4%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
88.2%
Draw
9.8%
Away win
2.0%
calibrated 11 Nov 17:02
scoring fit λ 2.52 / μ 0.19
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
2.0%
50.11x – risky
Draw
9.9%
10.15x – risky
top Home win
88.2%
1.13x – solid
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record · momentum Senegal 1.67 ppg vs Sudan 1.0 ppg
Senegal · last 6
04 Oct · Friendlies 0-1 W
29 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations… 0-1 W
25 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations… 1-1 D
01 Jul · World Cup 3-2 L
26 Jun · World Cup 5-0 W
23 Jun · World Cup 3-2 L
Sudan · last 6
29 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations… 4-1 L
25 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations… 1-0 W
03 Jan · Africa Cup of Nations 3-1 L
31 Dec · Africa Cup of Nations 0-2 L
28 Dec · Africa Cup of Nations 0-1 W
24 Dec · Africa Cup of Nations 3-0 L
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.