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UEFA Nations League
Italy vs France
Tomorrow 21:45 1 day, 19 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 94.3%
why
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new league — not enough graded picks to rate
draws 28.3% of matches
team history 6/14 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.6% (n=1957)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2539)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.3%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
23.2%
Draw
24.3%
Away win
52.5%
calibrated 10 Nov 23:55
scoring fit λ 1.16 / μ 1.84
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 107 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
52.5%
|
1.9x | 41.1% n=107 | risky |
| Draw |
24.3%
|
4.11x | 41.1% n=107 | risky |
| Home win |
23.2%
|
4.32x | 41.1% n=107 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Italy 0W / 1D / 0L
· momentum Italy 2.17 ppg vs France 1.67 ppg
Italy · last 6
05 Oct · UEFA Nations League
3-1
W
02 Oct · UEFA Nations League
1-1
D
28 Sep · UEFA Nations League
1-4
W
25 Sep · UEFA Nations League
0-2
L
07 Jun · Friendlies
0-1
W
03 Jun · Friendlies
0-1
W
France · last 6
05 Oct · UEFA Nations League
4-1
W
02 Oct · UEFA Nations League
1-1
D
28 Sep · UEFA Nations League
0-1
W
25 Sep · UEFA Nations League
0-1
W
18 Jul · World Cup
4-6
L
14 Jul · World Cup
0-2
L
Head-to-head last 5
02 Oct 26 · UEFA Nations League
France 1-1 Italy