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Friendlies
Colombia vs Chile
Fri 13 Nov 23:00 1 day, 21 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 92.6%
why
• league NEW (0.0%, n=1)
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new · 0.0% of 1 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 0.0%)
draws 25.0% of matches
team history 10/5 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.4% hit (n=2556)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
92.6%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
57.3%
Draw
23.0%
Away win
19.8%
calibrated 12 Nov 00:00
scoring fit λ 1.92 / μ 1.05
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 661 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
19.8%
|
5.06x | 44.3% n=661 | risky |
| Draw |
23.0%
|
4.36x | 44.3% n=661 | risky |
| top Home win |
57.3%
|
1.75x | 44.3% n=661 | lean |
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record
· momentum Colombia 1.5 ppg vs Chile 1.0 ppg
Colombia · last 6
07 Oct · Friendlies
2-0
W
03 Oct · Friendlies
0-1
L
27 Sep · Friendlies
1-1
D
07 Jul · World Cup
0-0
D
04 Jul · World Cup
1-0
W
28 Jun · World Cup
0-0
D
Chile · last 6
07 Oct · Friendlies
0-2
W
30 Sep · Friendlies
4-2
L
27 Sep · Friendlies
1-0
L
09 Jun · Friendlies
1-2
W
06 Jun · Friendlies
2-1
L
30 Mar · FIFA Series
4-1
L
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.