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UEFA Nations League
Armenia vs Cyprus
Tomorrow 19:00 1 day, 16 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 92.2%
why
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new league — not enough graded picks to rate
draws 28.3% of matches
team history 6/6 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2539)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
92.2%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
40.1%
Draw
27.8%
Away win
32.1%
calibrated 10 Nov 23:55
scoring fit λ 1.52 / μ 1.34
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 107 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
32.1%
|
3.11x | 41.1% n=107 | risky |
| Draw |
27.8%
|
3.6x | 41.1% n=107 | risky |
| top Home win |
40.1%
|
2.49x | 41.1% n=107 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Armenia 0W / 0D / 1L
· momentum Armenia 1.0 ppg vs Cyprus 1.83 ppg
Armenia · last 6
05 Oct · UEFA Nations League
0-0
D
02 Oct · UEFA Nations League
2-0
L
28 Sep · UEFA Nations League
2-3
L
25 Sep · UEFA Nations League
2-0
W
09 Jun · Friendlies
1-1
D
06 Jun · Friendlies
1-1
D
Cyprus · last 6
05 Oct · UEFA Nations League
2-1
W
02 Oct · UEFA Nations League
2-0
W
28 Sep · UEFA Nations League
0-0
D
25 Sep · UEFA Nations League
2-1
L
07 Jun · Friendlies
0-2
W
04 Jun · Friendlies
1-1
D
Head-to-head last 5
02 Oct 26 · UEFA Nations League
Cyprus 2-0 Armenia