HOME
EFL Trophy
Northampton Town FC vs Gillingham
Tomorrow 21:00 1 day, 17 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 77.8%
book 1.36x · even 1.30-1.55x
why
• league PROVEN (90.0%, n=10)
• type ledger 75% (n=2256)
• priced 1.36x - band hits ~65% (60d)
league track
proven · 90.0% of 10 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 59.6%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 22/21 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.0% hit (n=2256, 90d ledger)
measured band: 74.8% (n=936)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
77.8%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Safer
68.6%
Home or Draw
safest leg we would still back — lower variance, smaller payout.
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (77.8%)
@ 09 Nov 02:53 · 1.36x
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
46.4%
Draw
22.2%
Away win
31.4%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:53
scoring fit λ 1.71 / μ 1.37
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 131 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
31.4%
|
3.19x | 47.3% n=131 | risky |
| Draw |
22.2%
|
4.51x | 47.3% n=131 | risky |
| top Home win |
46.4%
|
2.15x | 47.3% n=131 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 27 meetings — Northampton T… 10W / 7D / 10L
· momentum Northampton… 1.17 ppg vs Gillingham 1.17 ppg
Northampton Town FC · last 6
07 Nov · FA Cup
4-0
L
31 Oct · League Two
1-1
D
25 Oct · FA Women's Cup
0-4
L
24 Oct · League Two
2-0
W
20 Oct · League Two
0-1
L
17 Oct · League Two
0-2
W
Gillingham · last 6
07 Nov · FA Cup
0-1
L
31 Oct · League Two
1-2
W
24 Oct · League Two
1-4
L
20 Oct · League Two
1-1
D
17 Oct · League Two
3-1
L
13 Oct · EFL Trophy
4-3
W
Head-to-head last 5
29 Aug 26 · League Two
Gillingham 1-1 Northampton Tow…
10 Apr 23 · League Two
Northampton Tow… 2-1 Gillingham
12 Nov 22 · League Two
Gillingham 0-2 Northampton Tow…
24 Apr 21 · League One
Gillingham 2-2 Northampton Tow…
29 Dec 20 · League One
Northampton Tow… 3-1 Gillingham