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EFL Trophy

Burton Albion vs Notts County

Tomorrow 21:00 1 day, 17 hours
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 78.3%
book 1.36x · even 1.30-1.55x
why
• league PROVEN (90.0%, n=10)
• type ledger 75% (n=2256)
• priced 1.36x - band hits ~65% (60d)
league track
proven · 90.0% of 10 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 59.6%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 22/22 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.0% hit (n=2256, 90d ledger)
measured band: 74.8% (n=936)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
78.3%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Safer
67.9%
Home or Draw
safest leg we would still back — lower variance, smaller payout.
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins solid (78.3%)
@ 09 Nov 02:53 · 1.36x
board also had Under 4.5 goals 84.2%
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
46.2%
Draw
21.7%
Away win
32.1%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:53
scoring fit λ 1.47 / μ 1.16
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 131 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
32.1%
3.12x 47.3% n=131 risky
Draw
21.7%
4.61x 47.3% n=131 risky
top Home win
46.2%
2.16x 47.3% n=131 risky
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Burton Albion 0W / 0D / 1L · momentum Burton Albi… 1.33 ppg vs Notts County 1.83 ppg
Burton Albion · last 6
07 Nov · FA Cup 4-0 W
31 Oct · League One 2-0 L
24 Oct · League One 2-1 W
20 Oct · League One 0-0 D
17 Oct · League One 2-2 D
10 Oct · League One 1-0 L
Notts County · last 6
07 Nov · FA Cup 2-2 D
31 Oct · League One 0-2 W
24 Oct · League One 1-1 D
20 Oct · League One 2-0 W
17 Oct · League One 2-0 L
13 Oct · EFL Trophy 5-1 W
Head-to-head last 5
29 Aug 26 · League One Notts County 2-1 Burton Albion