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EFL Trophy
Barnsley vs Oldham
Tomorrow 21:00 1 day, 17 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 79.9%
why
• league PROVEN (90.0%, n=10)
• type ledger 75% (n=2256)
league track
proven · 90.0% of 10 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 59.6%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 22/20 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.0% hit (n=2256, 90d ledger)
measured band: 74.8% (n=936)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
79.9%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (79.9%)
@ 09 Nov 02:53
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
41.7%
Draw
20.1%
Away win
38.1%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:53
scoring fit λ 1.70 / μ 1.61
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 131 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
38.1%
|
2.62x | 47.3% n=131 | risky |
| Draw |
20.1%
|
4.96x | 47.3% n=131 | risky |
| top Home win |
41.7%
|
2.4x | 47.3% n=131 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 12 meetings — Barnsley 6W / 4D / 2L
· momentum Barnsley 0.67 ppg vs Oldham 1.67 ppg
Barnsley · last 6
07 Nov · FA Cup
7-2
W
31 Oct · League One
1-1
D
24 Oct · League One
2-1
L
20 Oct · League One
2-1
L
17 Oct · League One
1-2
L
10 Oct · League One
3-1
L
Oldham · last 6
08 Nov · FA Cup
2-1
W
31 Oct · League Two
0-1
L
24 Oct · League Two
1-1
D
20 Oct · League Two
3-0
L
17 Oct · League Two
4-1
W
13 Oct · EFL Trophy
4-2
W
Head-to-head last 5
15 Apr 06 · League One
Oldham 0-3 Barnsley
01 Oct 05 · League One
Barnsley 4-0 Oldham
16 Mar 04 · League One
Oldham 1-1 Barnsley
16 Sep 03 · League One
Barnsley 1-1 Oldham
05 Apr 03 · League One
Oldham 2-1 Barnsley