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EFL Trophy
Bradford vs York
Tomorrow 21:30 1 day, 13 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Home or Draw · 69.7%
book 1.45x · even 1.30-1.55x
why
• league PROVEN (90.0%, n=10)
• type ledger 80% (n=1980)
• priced 1.45x - band hits ~65% (60d)
• confidence 70% below the 85% proven band
league track
proven · 90.0% of 10 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 59.6%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 25/21 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.9% hit (n=1980, 90d ledger)
measured band: 75.2% (n=149)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2519)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
69.7%
Home or Draw
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw
lean (69.7%)
@ 09 Nov 02:54 · 1.45x
board also had Over 1.5 goals 84.3%
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
48.3%
Draw
21.4%
Away win
30.3%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:54
scoring fit λ 1.80 / μ 1.37
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 131 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
30.3%
|
3.3x | 47.3% n=131 | risky |
| Draw |
21.4%
|
4.68x | 47.3% n=131 | risky |
| top Home win |
48.3%
|
2.07x | 47.3% n=131 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 8 meetings — Bradford 2W / 6D / 0L
· momentum Bradford 1.83 ppg vs York 1.5 ppg
Bradford · last 6
07 Nov · FA Cup
7-0
W
31 Oct · League One
0-3
L
28 Oct · League Cup
2-0
W
24 Oct · League One
0-0
D
20 Oct · League One
0-0
D
17 Oct · League One
2-0
W
York · last 6
07 Nov · FA Cup
4-0
W
31 Oct · League Two
5-2
L
24 Oct · League Two
2-0
W
20 Oct · League Two
1-1
D
17 Oct · League Two
1-1
D
10 Oct · League Two
1-1
D
Head-to-head last 5
02 Mar 13 · League Two
York 0-2 Bradford
13 Oct 12 · League Two
Bradford 1-1 York
02 Mar 96 · League One
Bradford 2-2 York
26 Dec 95 · League One
York 0-3 Bradford
25 Mar 95 · League One
York 0-0 Bradford