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UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification
Luxembourg U17 vs Italy U17
Tomorrow 10:00 1 day, 3 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 84.6%
why
• league OK (62.5%, n=8)
• type ledger 75% (n=2265)
league track
ok · 62.5% of 8 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 30.6%)
draws 15.0% of matches
team history 0/5 games (180d) · low data
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.1% hit (n=2265, 90d ledger)
measured band: 76.6% (n=679)
morning 06-12 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=385)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
84.6%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (84.6%)
@ 10 Nov 06:05
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
25.2%
Draw
15.4%
Away win
59.3%
calibrated 10 Nov 06:05
scoring fit λ 1.29 / μ 2.13
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 146 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
59.3%
|
1.69x | 57.5% n=146 | lean |
| Draw |
15.4%
|
6.49x | 57.5% n=146 | risky |
| Home win |
25.3%
|
3.96x | 57.5% n=146 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record
· momentum Luxembourg … 1.67 ppg vs Italy U17 2.0 ppg
Luxembourg U17 · last 6
28 Apr · UEFA U17 Championship…
0-1
L
25 Apr · UEFA U17 Championship…
5-0
W
22 Apr · UEFA U17 Championship…
2-2
D
19 Feb · Friendlies
3-0
W
17 Feb · Friendlies
2-0
W
14 Oct · UEFA U17 Championship…
0-1
L
Italy U17 · last 6
07 Jun · UEFA U17 Championship
1-1
D
04 Jun · UEFA U17 Championship
1-1
D
01 Jun · UEFA U17 Championship…
3-3
D
29 May · UEFA U17 Championship…
0-3
W
26 May · UEFA U17 Championship…
1-0
W
31 Mar · UEFA U17 Championship…
1-2
W
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.
Tickets including this match