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UEFA Europa League
Torreense vs Ararat-Armenia
Thu 05 Nov 22:00 0 minutes final 3–2 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Either team wins · 81.0%
book 1.35x · even 1.30-1.55x
why
• league PROVEN (71.1%, n=45)
• type ledger 75% (n=2265)
• priced 1.35x - band hits ~65% (60d)
• draw bets in this league lose 31% at book prices (90d n=70)
league track
proven · 71.1% of 45 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 56.6%)
draws 16.7% of matches
team history 20/28 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.1% hit (n=2265, 90d ledger)
measured band: 76.6% (n=679)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2529)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
81.0%
Either team wins
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (81.0%)
@ 05 Nov 17:24 · 1.35x
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
52.6%
Draw
19.0%
Away win
28.3%
calibrated 05 Nov 17:24
scoring fit λ 1.89 / μ 1.31
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 269 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
28.3%
|
3.53x | 55.4% n=269 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
19.0%
|
5.26x | 55.4% n=269 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
52.6%
|
1.9x | 55.4% n=269 | risky | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Torreense 1W / 0D / 0L
· momentum Torreense 1.17 ppg vs Ararat-Arme… 2.0 ppg
Torreense · last 6
09 Nov · Liga Portugal 2
2-3
L
05 Nov · UEFA Europa League
3-2
W
31 Oct · Liga Portugal 2
0-0
D
26 Oct · Liga Portugal 2
1-0
W
22 Oct · UEFA Europa League
4-1
L
15 Oct · UEFA Europa League
1-2
L
Ararat-Armenia · last 6
05 Nov · UEFA Europa League
3-2
L
01 Nov · Premier League
3-0
W
29 Oct · Cup
1-4
W
26 Oct · Premier League
2-1
W
22 Oct · UEFA Europa League
0-4
L
18 Oct · Premier League
0-1
W
Head-to-head last 5
05 Nov 26 · UEFA Europa League
Torreense 3-2 Ararat-Armenia
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