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Liga Portugal 2
Torreense vs União de Leiria
Today 22:15 17 hours, 51 minutes
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 91.9%
why
• league OK (66.7%, n=30)
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 66.7% of 30 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 48.8%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 19/13 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
91.9%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
42.9%
Draw
26.2%
Away win
30.9%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:52
scoring fit λ 1.53 / μ 1.27
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 307 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
30.9%
|
3.24x | 40.1% n=307 | risky |
| Draw |
26.2%
|
3.82x | 40.1% n=307 | risky |
| top Home win |
42.9%
|
2.33x | 40.1% n=307 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 3 meetings — Torreense 2W / 0D / 1L
· momentum Torreense 1.17 ppg vs União de Le… 1.83 ppg
Torreense · last 6
05 Nov · UEFA Europa League
3-2
W
31 Oct · Liga Portugal 2
0-0
D
26 Oct · Liga Portugal 2
1-0
W
22 Oct · UEFA Europa League
4-1
L
15 Oct · UEFA Europa League
1-2
L
10 Oct · Liga Portugal 2
1-0
L
União de Leiria · last 6
31 Oct · Liga Portugal 2
2-1
W
25 Oct · Liga Portugal 2
1-1
D
17 Oct · Taça de Portugal
2-1
W
11 Oct · Liga Portugal 2
0-2
L
19 Sep · Taça de Portugal
0-2
W
13 Sep · Liga Portugal 2
2-2
D
Head-to-head last 5
08 Feb 26 · Liga Portugal 2
Torreense 3-1 União de Leiria
12 Jan 26 · Taça de Portugal
Torreense 3-1 União de Leiria
29 Aug 25 · Liga Portugal 2
União de Leiria 1-0 Torreense