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Ligue 1

Le Mans vs Monaco

Sun 08 Nov 18:15 0 minutes final 1–1 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Draw or Away · 78.2%
book 1.30x · short <1.30x
why
• league PROVEN (76.7%, n=30)
• type ledger 77% (n=658)
• short price 1.30x
league track
proven · 76.7% of 30 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 59.1%)
draws 16.7% of matches
team history 13/20 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-X2: 76.6% hit (n=658, 90d ledger)
measured band: 77.3% (n=128)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2519)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
78.2%
Draw or Away
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Draw or Away solid (78.2%)
@ 08 Nov 17:24 · 1.30x
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
21.8%
Draw
23.9%
Away win
54.2%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:24
scoring fit λ 1.15 / μ 1.91
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 448 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
top Away win
54.2%
1.84x 43.8% n=448 risky lost
Draw
23.9%
4.18x 43.8% n=448 risky won
Home win
21.8%
4.58x 43.8% n=448 risky lost
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 17 meetings — Le Mans 1W / 5D / 11L · momentum Le Mans 0.83 ppg vs Monaco 1.33 ppg
Le Mans · last 6
08 Nov · Ligue 1 1-1 D
31 Oct · Ligue 1 2-0 L
25 Oct · Ligue 1 1-1 D
16 Oct · Ligue 1 0-3 L
10 Oct · Ligue 1 3-1 L
19 Sep · Ligue 1 2-1 W
Monaco · last 6
08 Nov · Ligue 1 1-1 D
05 Nov · UEFA Europa Conferenc… 2-0 W
01 Nov · Ligue 1 3-1 L
25 Oct · Ligue 1 1-1 D
22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conferenc… 3-0 W
18 Oct · Ligue 1 1-0 L
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Ligue 1 Le Mans 1-1 Monaco
17 May 13 · Ligue 2 Monaco 2-1 Le Mans
22 Dec 12 · Ligue 2 Le Mans 2-3 Monaco
30 Mar 12 · Ligue 2 Le Mans 0-1 Monaco
05 Nov 11 · Ligue 2 Monaco 2-2 Le Mans