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Ligue 2
Nancy vs Sochaux
Fri 06 Nov 21:00 0 minutes final 1–0 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home, draw refunds · 75.1%
book 1.38x · even 1.30-1.55x
why
• league PROVEN (79.2%, n=24)
• type ledger 71% (n=63)
• priced 1.38x - band hits ~65% (60d)
league track
proven · 79.2% of 24 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 59.5%)
draws 18.3% of matches
team history 18/16 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DNB-H: 71.4% hit (n=63, 90d ledger)
measured band: 77.2% (n=276)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2529)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
75.1%
Home, draw refunds
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Safer
83.3%
Home or Draw
safest leg we would still back — lower variance, smaller payout.
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home, draw refunds
solid (75.1%)
@ 06 Nov 17:58 · 1.38x
board also had Under 4.5 goals 86.3%
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
50.4%
Draw
32.9%
Away win
16.7%
calibrated 06 Nov 17:58
scoring fit λ 1.65 / μ 0.92
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 341 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
16.7%
|
5.99x | 47.2% n=341 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
32.9%
|
3.04x | 47.2% n=341 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
50.4%
|
1.99x | 47.2% n=341 | risky | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 35 meetings — Nancy 10W / 15D / 10L
· momentum Nancy 2.5 ppg vs Sochaux 0.33 ppg
Nancy · last 6
06 Nov · Ligue 2
1-0
W
02 Nov · Ligue 2
1-4
W
23 Oct · Ligue 2
1-0
W
16 Oct · Ligue 2
1-2
W
09 Oct · Ligue 2
1-0
W
02 Oct · Friendlies Clubs
2-1
L
Sochaux · last 6
06 Nov · Ligue 2
1-0
L
31 Oct · Ligue 2
2-0
L
23 Oct · Ligue 2
1-3
L
17 Oct · Ligue 2
3-2
L
09 Oct · Ligue 2
1-1
D
18 Sep · Ligue 2
1-1
D
Head-to-head last 5
06 Nov 26 · Ligue 2
Nancy 1-0 Sochaux
09 Apr 22 · Ligue 2
Sochaux 1-0 Nancy
30 Oct 21 · Ligue 2
Nancy 0-0 Sochaux
10 Apr 21 · Ligue 2
Nancy 0-0 Sochaux
05 Dec 20 · Ligue 2
Sochaux 1-1 Nancy