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EFL Trophy
Bromley vs Milton Keynes Dons
Tomorrow 21:30 1 day, 13 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 93.4%
why
• league PROVEN (90.0%, n=10)
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 90.0% of 10 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 59.6%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 22/19 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.6% (n=1945)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2519)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.4%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
40.9%
Draw
21.7%
Away win
37.4%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:54
scoring fit λ 1.63 / μ 1.55
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 131 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
37.4%
|
2.68x | 47.3% n=131 | risky |
| Draw |
21.7%
|
4.6x | 47.3% n=131 | risky |
| top Home win |
40.9%
|
2.44x | 47.3% n=131 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 5 meetings — Bromley 2W / 1D / 2L
· momentum Bromley 0.17 ppg vs Milton Keyn… 2.0 ppg
Bromley · last 6
07 Nov · FA Cup
0-2
L
31 Oct · League One
3-2
L
24 Oct · League One
1-1
D
20 Oct · League One
0-4
L
17 Oct · League One
1-0
L
10 Oct · League One
2-1
L
Milton Keynes Dons · last 6
07 Nov · FA Cup
2-1
W
31 Oct · League One
6-1
W
24 Oct · League One
0-1
W
20 Oct · League One
2-0
L
17 Oct · League One
2-1
W
10 Oct · League One
1-5
L
Head-to-head last 5
26 Sep 26 · League One
Milton Keynes D… 4-1 Bromley
11 Apr 26 · League Two
Milton Keynes D… 2-1 Bromley
25 Oct 25 · League Two
Bromley 2-1 Milton Keynes D…
08 Feb 25 · League Two
Milton Keynes D… 0-1 Bromley
28 Sep 24 · League Two
Bromley 1-1 Milton Keynes D…