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FAW Championship
Carmarthen Town vs Aberystwyth Town
Sat 07 Nov 21:45 0 minutes final 0–4 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 93.8%
why
• league PROVEN (74.2%, n=31)
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 74.2% of 31 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 56.8%)
draws 31.7% of matches
team history 14/12 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.6% (n=1945)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2528)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.8%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
29.2%
Draw
18.1%
Away win
52.8%
calibrated 07 Nov 17:54
scoring fit λ 1.44 / μ 2.02
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 467 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
52.8%
|
1.9x | 54.2% n=467 | risky | won |
| Draw |
18.0%
|
5.54x | 54.2% n=467 | risky | lost |
| Home win |
29.2%
|
3.42x | 54.2% n=467 | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 2 meetings — Carmarthen To… 0W / 1D / 1L
· momentum Carmarthen … 0.17 ppg vs Aberystwyth… 2.17 ppg
Carmarthen Town · last 6
07 Nov · FAW Championship
0-4
L
31 Oct · FAW Championship
2-1
L
23 Oct · FAW Championship
1-3
L
17 Oct · Welsh Cup
4-5
L
10 Oct · FAW Championship
2-2
D
02 Oct · FAW Championship
1-2
L
Aberystwyth Town · last 6
07 Nov · FAW Championship
0-4
W
31 Oct · FAW Championship
2-1
W
17 Oct · Welsh Cup
5-1
W
10 Oct · FAW Championship
0-1
L
03 Oct · FAW Championship
1-3
W
25 Sep · FAW Championship
0-0
D
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · FAW Championship
Carmarthen Town 0-4 Aberystwyth Town
01 Jan 26 · FAW Championship
Aberystwyth Town 1-1 Carmarthen Town
Tickets including this match