HOME
Division 2
Al Nairyah vs Al Sahel
Fri 13 Nov 13:55 1 day, 13 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 95.0%
why
• league PROVEN (72.3%, n=65)
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 72.3% of 65 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 60.4%)
draws 30.0% of matches
team history 3/5 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.6% (n=1957)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 76.6% hit (n=3052)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
95.0%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
36.5%
Draw
25.0%
Away win
38.4%
calibrated 11 Nov 23:59
scoring fit λ 1.62 / μ 1.67
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 09 Nov · 207 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
38.4%
|
2.6x | 44.0% n=207 | risky |
| Draw |
25.0%
|
4.0x | 44.0% n=207 | risky |
| Home win |
36.5%
|
2.74x | 44.0% n=207 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record
· momentum Al Nairyah 1.83 ppg vs Al Sahel 2.67 ppg
Al Nairyah · last 6
02 Nov · Division 2
0-2
W
28 Oct · Division 2
3-4
L
24 Oct · Division 2
2-2
D
07 Apr · Division 2
3-1
W
04 Apr · Division 2
1-1
D
27 Mar · Division 2
3-2
W
Al Sahel · last 6
07 Nov · Division 2
0-2
W
02 Nov · Division 2
3-2
W
28 Oct · Division 2
0-2
W
23 Oct · Division 2
1-0
W
16 Oct · Division 2
2-2
D
10 Apr · Division 2
0-4
W
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.