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Division 2
Al Safa FC vs Al Qalah
Fri 13 Nov 13:50 1 day, 12 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 94.0%
why
• league PROVEN (72.3%, n=65)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 72.3% of 65 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 60.4%)
draws 30.0% of matches
team history 4/4 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.0% (n=4539)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 76.6% hit (n=3052)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.0%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
38.1%
Draw
25.6%
Away win
36.3%
calibrated 11 Nov 23:59
scoring fit λ 1.49 / μ 1.45
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 09 Nov · 207 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
36.3%
|
2.76x | 44.0% n=207 | risky |
| Draw |
25.6%
|
3.9x | 44.0% n=207 | risky |
| top Home win |
38.1%
|
2.62x | 44.0% n=207 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record
· momentum Al Safa FC 1.67 ppg vs Al Qalah 2.17 ppg
Al Safa FC · last 6
07 Nov · Division 2
1-3
W
02 Nov · Division 2
1-0
W
28 Oct · Division 2
3-0
L
23 Oct · Division 2
0-3
L
09 Apr · Division 2
2-2
D
03 Apr · Division 2
0-1
W
Al Qalah · last 6
06 Nov · Division 2
2-0
W
02 Nov · Division 2
1-1
D
27 Oct · Division 2
3-0
W
23 Oct · Division 2
3-1
W
09 Apr · Division 2
2-1
L
03 Apr · Division 2
1-0
W
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.