HOME
Allsvenskan

Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg

Fri 06 Nov 20:00 0 minutes final 4–1 · 0 won · 1 lost
AWAY
back to predictions
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 3.5 goals · 62.9%
book 1.60x · longshot 1.55x+
why
• league PROVEN (72.9%, n=48)
• type ledger 71% (n=343)
• priced 1.60x - 1.55x+ legs hit ~53% (60d)
• confidence 63% below the 85% proven band
league track
proven · 72.9% of 48 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 59.0%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 28/23 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U3.5: 70.6% hit (n=343, 90d ledger)
measured band: 62.1% (n=124)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.4% hit (n=2540)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
62.9%
Under 3.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Under 3.5 goals lean (62.9%)
@ 06 Nov 17:56 · 1.60x
board also had Either team wins 83.4% pick lost
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
61.8%
Draw
16.6%
Away win
21.6%
calibrated 06 Nov 17:56
scoring fit λ 1.95 / μ 1.01
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 217 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
21.6%
4.62x 46.1% n=217 risky lost
Draw
16.6%
6.03x 46.1% n=217 risky lost
top Home win
61.8%
1.62x 46.1% n=217 lean won
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 12 meetings — Hammarby FF 8W / 2D / 2L · momentum Hammarby FF 2.5 ppg vs IF Elfsborg 1.5 ppg
Hammarby FF · last 6
06 Nov · Allsvenskan 4-1 W
01 Nov · Allsvenskan 1-2 W
29 Oct · Allsvenskan 2-0 W
25 Oct · Allsvenskan 0-2 W
18 Oct · Allsvenskan 0-1 W
11 Oct · Allsvenskan 0-1 L
IF Elfsborg · last 6
06 Nov · Allsvenskan 4-1 L
01 Nov · Allsvenskan 2-1 W
27 Oct · Allsvenskan 2-2 D
23 Oct · Allsvenskan 0-0 D
18 Oct · Allsvenskan 2-2 D
12 Oct · Allsvenskan 4-0 W
Head-to-head last 5
06 Nov 26 · Allsvenskan Hammarby FF 4-1 IF Elfsborg
05 Jul 26 · Allsvenskan IF Elfsborg 1-2 Hammarby FF
09 Nov 25 · Allsvenskan Hammarby FF 3-0 IF Elfsborg
31 May 25 · Allsvenskan IF Elfsborg 0-2 Hammarby FF
22 Sep 24 · Allsvenskan IF Elfsborg 0-0 Hammarby FF