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Liga Portugal 2

Sporting CP B vs Tondela

Sun 08 Nov 20:00 0 minutes final 1–1 · settled
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 93.6%
why
• league OK (66.7%, n=30)
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 66.7% of 30 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 48.8%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 14/15 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2519)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.6%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
34.5%
Draw
28.3%
Away win
37.2%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:26
scoring fit λ 1.25 / μ 1.31
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 307 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
top Away win
37.2%
2.68x 40.1% n=307 risky lost
Draw
28.3%
3.54x 40.1% n=307 risky won
Home win
34.5%
2.9x 40.1% n=307 risky lost
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Sporting CP B 0W / 1D / 0L · momentum Sporting CP… 2.67 ppg vs Tondela 2.17 ppg
Sporting CP B · last 6
08 Nov · Liga Portugal 2 1-1 D
31 Oct · Liga Portugal 2 1-2 W
30 Oct · Premier League Intern… 1-2 W
24 Oct · Liga Portugal 2 3-0 W
10 Oct · Liga Portugal 2 0-2 W
30 Sep · Premier League Intern… 2-4 W
Tondela · last 6
08 Nov · Liga Portugal 2 1-1 D
30 Oct · Liga Portugal 2 3-2 W
25 Oct · Liga Portugal 2 2-1 L
18 Oct · Taça de Portugal 2-0 W
10 Oct · Liga Portugal 2 1-0 W
12 Sep · Liga Portugal 2 0-2 W
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Liga Portugal 2 Sporting CP B 1-1 Tondela