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Jupiler Pro League
Gent vs Kortrijk
Sun 08 Nov 17:00 0 minutes final 1–0 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 92.8%
why
• league PROVEN (74.2%, n=31)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 74.2% of 31 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 56.8%)
draws 16.7% of matches
team history 28/19 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 92.9% (n=4118)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
92.8%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
66.0%
Draw
20.6%
Away win
13.4%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:24
scoring fit λ 2.04 / μ 0.80
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 305 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
13.4%
|
7.47x | 47.9% n=305 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
20.6%
|
4.86x | 47.9% n=305 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
66.0%
|
1.51x | 47.9% n=305 | lean | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 37 meetings — Gent 21W / 6D / 10L
· momentum Gent 1.33 ppg vs Kortrijk 0.83 ppg
Gent · last 6
08 Nov · Jupiler Pro League
1-0
W
05 Nov · UEFA Europa Conferenc…
0-0
D
01 Nov · Jupiler Pro League
2-0
L
25 Oct · Jupiler Pro League
4-0
W
22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conferenc…
2-0
L
18 Oct · Cup
3-3
D
Kortrijk · last 6
08 Nov · Jupiler Pro League
1-0
L
31 Oct · Jupiler Pro League
1-1
D
23 Oct · Jupiler Pro League
1-3
L
10 Oct · Jupiler Pro League
3-0
L
26 Sep · Cup
2-2
D
20 Sep · Jupiler Pro League
1-0
W
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Jupiler Pro League
Gent 1-0 Kortrijk
16 Mar 25 · Pro League
Gent 1-2 Kortrijk
28 Jul 24 · Pro League
Kortrijk 0-1 Gent
26 Dec 23 · Pro League
Kortrijk 0-2 Gent
30 Jul 23 · Pro League
Gent 3-2 Kortrijk
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