HOME
Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau

Today 19:00 58 minutes
AWAY
back to predictions
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 91.6%
why
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new league — not enough graded picks to rate
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 3/2 games (180d) · low data
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.4% hit (n=2540)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
91.6%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
28.1%
Draw
31.9%
Away win
40.0%
calibrated 11 Nov 17:02
scoring fit λ 1.44 / μ 1.72
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
top Away win
40.0%
2.5x – risky
Draw
31.9%
3.14x – risky
Home win
28.1%
3.56x – risky
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record · momentum Madagascar 1.33 ppg vs Guinea-Biss… 1.17 ppg
Madagascar · last 6
29 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations… 1-1 D
25 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations… 2-1 L
02 Jun · Friendlies 4-0 L
31 Mar · Friendlies 1-1 D
28 Mar · Friendlies 2-5 W
17 Nov · Friendlies 2-0 W
Guinea-Bissau · last 6
29 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations… 3-0 W
25 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations… 0-2 W
31 Mar · Friendlies 1-1 D
28 Mar · Friendlies 5-0 L
12 Oct · World Cup - Qualifica… 1-0 L
08 Oct · World Cup - Qualifica… 1-0 L
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.