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Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification
Gabon vs Lesotho
Today 19:00 1 hour, 21 minutes
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Home or Draw · 93.5%
why
• type ledger 79% (n=1997)
• league is untracked (no graded ledger yet)
league track
new league — not enough graded picks to rate
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 2/4 games (180d) · low data
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.0% hit (n=1997, 90d ledger)
measured band: 92.7% (n=164)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.4% hit (n=2540)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.5%
Home or Draw
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
75.7%
Draw
17.8%
Away win
6.5%
calibrated 11 Nov 17:02
scoring fit λ 2.23 / μ 0.53
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
6.5%
|
15.3x | – | risky |
| Draw |
17.8%
|
5.62x | – | risky |
| top Home win |
75.7%
|
1.32x | – | solid |
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record
· momentum Gabon 0.67 ppg vs Lesotho 0.83 ppg
Gabon · last 6
29 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations…
2-0
W
25 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations…
2-0
L
30 Mar · FIFA Series
2-2
D
27 Mar · FIFA Series
3-1
L
31 Dec · Africa Cup of Nations
2-3
L
28 Dec · Africa Cup of Nations
2-3
L
Lesotho · last 6
29 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations…
0-2
L
25 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations…
2-1
L
07 Jun · Friendlies
4-0
L
04 Jun · Friendlies
1-1
D
29 Mar · Africa Cup of Nations…
2-1
W
26 Mar · Africa Cup of Nations…
0-0
D
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.