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U20 Elite League
Italy U20 vs Portugal U20
Tomorrow 18:00 1 day, 13 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 90.5%
why
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new league — not enough graded picks to rate
draws 22.4% of matches
team history 3/6 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.6% (n=1957)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2539)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
90.5%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
20.5%
Draw
16.7%
Away win
62.8%
calibrated 11 Nov 03:08
scoring fit λ 1.36 / μ 2.48
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
62.8%
|
1.59x | – | lean |
| Draw |
16.7%
|
6.0x | – | risky |
| Home win |
20.5%
|
4.87x | – | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Italy U20 0W / 0D / 1L
· momentum Italy U20 0.67 ppg vs Portugal U20 2.17 ppg
Italy U20 · last 6
03 Oct · U20 Elite League
0-3
W
29 Sep · U20 Elite League
3-0
L
25 Sep · U20 Elite League
1-3
L
27 Mar · Friendlies
3-3
D
17 Nov · U20 Elite League
5-0
L
14 Nov · U20 Elite League
1-2
L
Portugal U20 · last 6
02 Oct · U20 Elite League
5-0
W
26 Sep · U20 Elite League
1-3
L
11 Jun · Tournoi Maurice Revel…
6-1
W
08 Jun · Tournoi Maurice Revel…
1-3
W
06 Jun · Tournoi Maurice Revel…
0-0
D
03 Jun · Tournoi Maurice Revel…
1-4
W
Head-to-head last 5
14 Nov 25 · U20 Elite League
Italy U20 1-2 Portugal U20