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Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

Ghana vs Somalia

Today 19:00 1 hour, 14 minutes
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 3.5 goals · 67.2%
book 1.66x · longshot 1.55x+
why
• type ledger 71% (n=343)
• priced 1.66x - 1.55x+ legs hit ~53% (60d)
• league is untracked (no graded ledger yet)
league track
new league — not enough graded picks to rate
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 8/2 games (180d) · low data
bet type · time of day
OU-U3.5: 70.6% hit (n=343, 90d ledger)
measured band: 63.1% (n=84)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.4% hit (n=2540)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
67.2%
Under 3.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Under 3.5 goals lean (67.2%)
@ 11 Nov 17:02 · 1.66x
board also had Either team wins 92.0%
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
88.5%
Draw
8.0%
Away win
3.5%
calibrated 11 Nov 17:02
scoring fit λ 2.33 / μ 0.05
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
3.5%
28.7x – risky
Draw
8.0%
12.54x – risky
top Home win
88.5%
1.13x – solid
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record · momentum Ghana 0.67 ppg vs Somalia 1.0 ppg
Ghana · last 6
29 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations… 2-4 L
24 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations… 2-0 L
04 Jul · World Cup 1-0 L
27 Jun · World Cup 2-1 L
23 Jun · World Cup 0-0 D
18 Jun · World Cup 1-0 W
Somalia · last 6
29 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations… 0-2 L
25 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations… 2-1 L
31 Mar · Africa Cup of Nations… 0-0 D
27 Mar · Africa Cup of Nations… 0-0 D
26 Nov · Arab Cup 0-0 D
17 Nov · Friendlies 1-2 W
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.