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Halmstad vs Djurgårdens IF
Sun 08 Nov 15:00 0 minutes final 2–1 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 94.1%
why
• league PROVEN (72.9%, n=48)
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 72.9% of 48 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 59.0%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 24/24 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.3% (n=1742)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.1%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
12.5%
Draw
18.1%
Away win
69.5%
calibrated 08 Nov 10:36
scoring fit λ 0.79 / μ 2.18
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 217 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
69.5%
|
1.44x | 46.1% n=217 | lean | lost |
| Draw |
18.0%
|
5.54x | 46.1% n=217 | risky | lost |
| Home win |
12.5%
|
8.01x | 46.1% n=217 | risky | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 11 meetings — Halmstad 4W / 3D / 4L
· momentum Halmstad 1.0 ppg vs Djurgårdens… 1.83 ppg
Halmstad · last 6
08 Nov · Allsvenskan
2-1
W
03 Nov · Allsvenskan
2-0
L
28 Oct · Allsvenskan
0-3
L
23 Oct · Allsvenskan
1-2
W
18 Oct · Allsvenskan
0-1
L
12 Oct · Allsvenskan
4-0
L
Djurgårdens IF · last 6
08 Nov · Allsvenskan
2-1
L
01 Nov · Allsvenskan
2-1
W
28 Oct · Allsvenskan
1-1
D
24 Oct · Allsvenskan
2-2
D
16 Oct · Allsvenskan
0-2
W
11 Oct · Allsvenskan
0-1
W
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Allsvenskan
Halmstad 2-1 Djurgårdens IF
13 Jul 26 · Allsvenskan
Djurgårdens IF 3-0 Halmstad
03 Aug 25 · Allsvenskan
Djurgårdens IF 1-1 Halmstad
01 Jun 25 · Allsvenskan
Halmstad 1-0 Djurgårdens IF
03 Nov 24 · Allsvenskan
Halmstad 1-0 Djurgårdens IF