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Esiliiga B
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 vs Narva U21
Sun 08 Nov 12:30 0 minutes final 1–4 · 1 won · 0 lostNa
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 87.0%
book 1.26x · short <1.30x
why
• league PROVEN (84.2%, n=19)
• type ledger 75% (n=2256)
• short price 1.26x
league track
proven · 84.2% of 19 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 62.4%)
draws 10.0% of matches
team history 26/26 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.0% hit (n=2256, 90d ledger)
measured band: 79.9% (n=303)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
87.0%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (87.0%)
@ 08 Nov 10:38 · 1.26x
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
48.4%
Draw
13.0%
Away win
38.5%
calibrated 08 Nov 10:38
scoring fit λ 2.13 / μ 1.88
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 181 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
38.5%
|
2.6x | 56.4% n=181 | risky | won |
| Draw |
13.0%
|
7.67x | 56.4% n=181 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
48.4%
|
2.06x | 56.4% n=181 | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 4 meetings — Parnu JK Vapr… 1W / 0D / 3L
· momentum Parnu JK Va… 1.67 ppg vs Narva U21 2.17 ppg
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 · last 6
08 Nov · Esiliiga B
1-4
L
01 Nov · Esiliiga B
2-0
W
26 Oct · Esiliiga B
3-2
L
17 Oct · Esiliiga B
2-3
W
14 Oct · Esiliiga B
2-1
W
11 Oct · Esiliiga B
1-1
D
Narva U21 · last 6
08 Nov · Esiliiga B
1-4
W
31 Oct · Esiliiga B
0-3
L
25 Oct · Esiliiga B
2-1
W
19 Oct · Esiliiga B
0-0
D
15 Oct · Esiliiga B
2-0
W
11 Oct · Esiliiga B
0-1
W
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Esiliiga B
Parnu JK Vaprus… 1-4 Narva U21
19 Jul 26 · Esiliiga B
Narva U21 4-1 Parnu JK Vaprus…
17 May 26 · Esiliiga B
Parnu JK Vaprus… 4-0 Narva U21
22 Mar 26 · Esiliiga B
Narva U21 5-0 Parnu JK Vaprus…
Tickets including this match