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Youth Championship
Rodina Moscow U19 vs Akademiya Konoplev U20
Fri 06 Nov 14:00 0 minutes final 2–2 · 0 won · 2 lostAk
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 81.3%
book 1.30x · even 1.30-1.55x
why
• league PROVEN (73.3%, n=60)
• type ledger 75% (n=2265)
• priced 1.30x - band hits ~65% (60d)
league track
proven · 73.3% of 60 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 61.0%)
draws 16.7% of matches
team history 20/20 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.1% hit (n=2265, 90d ledger)
measured band: 76.6% (n=679)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
81.3%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home, draw refunds
solid (77.3%)
@ 06 Nov 10:45 · 1.33x
Home win
lean (62.9%)
@ 06 Nov 10:45 · 1.60x
board also had Home or Draw 81.6%
pick lost
Either team wins
solid (81.3%)
@ 06 Nov 10:45 · 1.30x
pick lost
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
62.9%
Draw
18.6%
Away win
18.4%
calibrated 06 Nov 10:45
scoring fit λ 2.47 / μ 1.30
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 244 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
18.4%
|
5.43x | 59.0% n=244 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
18.6%
|
5.36x | 59.0% n=244 | risky | won |
| top Home win |
62.9%
|
1.59x | 59.0% n=244 | engine pick | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 2 meetings — Rodina Moscow… 1W / 1D / 0L
· momentum Rodina Mosc… 2.17 ppg vs Akademiya K… 1.17 ppg
Rodina Moscow U19 · last 6
06 Nov · Youth Championship
2-2
D
30 Oct · Youth Championship
2-1
W
23 Oct · Youth Championship
5-1
L
16 Oct · Youth Championship
5-1
W
09 Oct · Youth Championship
2-3
W
18 Sep · Youth Championship
2-1
W
Akademiya Konoplev U20 · last 6
06 Nov · Youth Championship
2-2
D
30 Oct · Youth Championship
0-1
L
23 Oct · Youth Championship
3-2
L
16 Oct · Youth Championship
3-2
W
09 Oct · Youth Championship
2-0
L
18 Sep · Youth Championship
2-0
W
Head-to-head last 5
06 Nov 26 · Youth Championship
Rodina Moscow U… 2-2 Akademiya Konop…
17 Jul 26 · Youth Championship
Akademiya Konop… 1-4 Rodina Moscow U…