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UEFA Europa League

Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb

Thu 05 Nov 22:00 0 minutes final 0–2 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Either team wins · 82.2%
book 1.27x · short <1.30x
why
• league PROVEN (71.1%, n=45)
• type ledger 78% (n=2297)
• short price 1.27x
• draw bets in this league lose 31% at book prices (90d n=70)
league track
proven · 71.1% of 45 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 56.6%)
draws 16.7% of matches
team history 24/27 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 78.5% hit (n=2297, 90d ledger)
measured band: 80.2% (n=698)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.4% hit (n=2540)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
82.2%
Either team wins
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins solid (82.2%)
@ 05 Nov 17:24 · 1.27x
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
59.7%
Draw
17.8%
Away win
22.5%
calibrated 05 Nov 17:24
scoring fit λ 2.00 / μ 1.11
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 269 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
22.5%
4.44x 55.4% n=269 risky won
Draw
17.8%
5.63x 55.4% n=269 risky lost
top Home win
59.7%
1.67x 55.4% n=269 lean lost
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Sunderland 0W / 0D / 1L · momentum Sunderland 1.33 ppg vs Dinamo Zagr… 2.0 ppg
Sunderland · last 6
08 Nov · Premier League 1-0 W
05 Nov · UEFA Europa League 0-2 L
31 Oct · Premier League 3-1 L
28 Oct · League Cup 3-2 W
25 Oct · Premier League 0-0 D
22 Oct · UEFA Europa League 1-1 D
Dinamo Zagreb · last 6
07 Nov · HNL 1-3 W
05 Nov · UEFA Europa League 0-2 W
31 Oct · HNL 1-0 L
24 Oct · HNL 2-1 W
22 Oct · UEFA Europa League 2-4 L
18 Oct · HNL 1-5 W
Head-to-head last 5
05 Nov 26 · UEFA Europa League Sunderland 0-2 Dinamo Zagreb