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Premier League
Spartak Moscow vs Akron
Sun 08 Nov 15:15 0 minutes final 2–1 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 93.5%
why
• league OK (66.7%, n=15)
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 66.7% of 15 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 41.7%)
draws 26.7% of matches
team history 26/27 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.3% (n=1742)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.5%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
70.5%
Draw
19.8%
Away win
9.7%
calibrated 08 Nov 10:39
scoring fit λ 2.31 / μ 0.78
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 31 Oct · 31 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
9.7%
|
10.35x | 67.7% n=31 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
19.8%
|
5.04x | 67.7% n=31 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
70.5%
|
1.42x | 67.7% n=31 | solid | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 7 meetings — Spartak Moscow 5W / 1D / 1L
· momentum Spartak Mos… 2.5 ppg vs Akron 0.83 ppg
Spartak Moscow · last 6
08 Nov · Premier League
2-1
W
01 Nov · Premier League
0-4
W
28 Oct · Cup
1-0
W
25 Oct · Premier League
2-0
L
18 Oct · Premier League
4-0
W
15 Oct · Cup
2-4
W
Akron · last 6
08 Nov · Premier League
2-1
L
01 Nov · Premier League
2-1
L
28 Oct · Cup
6-1
L
24 Oct · Premier League
3-1
W
17 Oct · Premier League
1-1
D
13 Oct · Cup
1-1
D
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Premier League
Spartak Moscow 2-1 Akron
09 Mar 26 · Premier League
Spartak Moscow 4-3 Akron
03 Aug 25 · Premier League
Akron 1-1 Spartak Moscow
19 Apr 25 · Premier League
Akron 2-3 Spartak Moscow
12 Mar 25 · Cup
Akron 2-3 Spartak Moscow