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2. SNL
Beltinci vs Dravinja
Sun 08 Nov 15:00 0 minutes final 3–1 · settledDr
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 93.4%
why
• league OK (68.8%, n=32)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 68.8% of 32 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 51.4%)
draws 15.0% of matches
team history 20/16 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 92.9% (n=4118)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.4%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
71.0%
Draw
17.9%
Away win
11.0%
calibrated 08 Nov 10:41
scoring fit λ 2.38 / μ 0.84
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 31 Oct · 362 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
11.0%
|
9.07x | 58.8% n=362 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
17.9%
|
5.57x | 58.8% n=362 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
71.0%
|
1.41x | 58.8% n=362 | solid | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 7 meetings — Beltinci 4W / 2D / 1L
· momentum Beltinci 2.5 ppg vs Dravinja 1.67 ppg
Beltinci · last 6
08 Nov · 2. SNL
3-1
W
02 Nov · 2. SNL
0-6
W
28 Oct · 2. SNL
3-4
L
25 Oct · Cup
0-1
W
18 Oct · 2. SNL
1-2
W
10 Oct · 2. SNL
5-1
W
Dravinja · last 6
08 Nov · 2. SNL
3-1
L
31 Oct · 2. SNL
1-0
W
28 Oct · 2. SNL
0-6
W
16 Oct · 2. SNL
2-1
W
11 Oct · 2. SNL
1-1
D
03 Oct · 2. SNL
1-4
L
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · 2. SNL
Beltinci 3-1 Dravinja
28 Mar 26 · 2. SNL
Beltinci 1-1 Dravinja
13 Sep 25 · 2. SNL
Dravinja 0-2 Beltinci
02 May 25 · 2. SNL
Dravinja 2-1 Beltinci
19 Oct 24 · 2. SNL
Beltinci 0-0 Dravinja
Tickets including this match