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EFL Trophy
Plymouth vs Swindon Town
Tomorrow 21:00 1 day, 16 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 93.2%
why
• league PROVEN (90.0%, n=10)
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 90.0% of 10 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 59.6%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 24/23 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.3% (n=1742)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.2%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
51.2%
Draw
20.0%
Away win
28.8%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:53
scoring fit λ 1.82 / μ 1.30
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 131 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
28.8%
|
3.47x | 47.3% n=131 | risky |
| Draw |
20.0%
|
5.01x | 47.3% n=131 | risky |
| top Home win |
51.2%
|
1.95x | 47.3% n=131 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record
· momentum Plymouth 1.67 ppg vs Swindon Town 1.33 ppg
Plymouth · last 6
07 Nov · FA Cup
4-0
W
31 Oct · League One
0-0
D
24 Oct · League One
2-3
W
20 Oct · League One
3-0
L
17 Oct · League One
0-2
L
10 Oct · League One
2-1
W
Swindon Town · last 6
07 Nov · FA Cup
2-1
L
31 Oct · League Two
2-1
W
24 Oct · League Two
0-0
D
20 Oct · League Two
1-3
W
17 Oct · League Two
1-1
D
10 Oct · League Two
0-1
L
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.