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EFL Trophy
Mansfield Town FC vs Chesterfield
Tomorrow 21:00 1 day, 16 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 78.4%
book 1.34x · even 1.30-1.55x
why
• league PROVEN (90.0%, n=10)
• type ledger 75% (n=2258)
• priced 1.34x - band hits ~65% (60d)
league track
proven · 90.0% of 10 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 59.6%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 20/22 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.1% hit (n=2258, 90d ledger)
measured band: 74.8% (n=938)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
78.4%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Safer
69.0%
Home or Draw
safest leg we would still back — lower variance, smaller payout.
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (78.4%)
@ 09 Nov 02:53 · 1.34x
board also had Over 1.5 goals 84.0%
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
47.4%
Draw
21.6%
Away win
31.0%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:53
scoring fit λ 1.69 / μ 1.32
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 131 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
31.0%
|
3.23x | 47.3% n=131 | risky |
| Draw |
21.6%
|
4.63x | 47.3% n=131 | risky |
| top Home win |
47.4%
|
2.11x | 47.3% n=131 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 13 meetings — Mansfield Tow… 6W / 1D / 6L
· momentum Mansfield T… 2.17 ppg vs Chesterfield 1.33 ppg
Mansfield Town FC · last 6
07 Nov · FA Cup
3-0
W
31 Oct · League One
0-2
L
24 Oct · League One
1-4
W
20 Oct · League One
0-3
W
15 Oct · League One
1-1
D
10 Oct · League One
2-1
W
Chesterfield · last 6
07 Nov · FA Cup
4-3
W
30 Oct · League Two
4-1
L
24 Oct · League Two
5-1
W
20 Oct · League Two
1-1
D
17 Oct · League Two
1-0
L
10 Oct · League Two
2-2
D
Head-to-head last 5
12 Aug 25 · League Cup
Chesterfield 0-2 Mansfield Town …
14 Apr 18 · League Two
Chesterfield 0-1 Mansfield Town …
25 Nov 17 · League Two
Mansfield Town … 2-2 Chesterfield
22 Dec 07 · League Two
Chesterfield 2-0 Mansfield Town …
15 Sep 07 · League Two
Mansfield Town … 1-3 Chesterfield