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Division 2

Hetten FC vs Mudhar Club

Fri 13 Nov 14:30 1 day, 13 hours
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 94.1%
why
• league PROVEN (72.3%, n=65)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 72.3% of 65 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 60.4%)
draws 30.0% of matches
team history 2/4 games (180d) · low data
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.0% (n=4539)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 76.6% hit (n=3052)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.1%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
38.5%
Draw
25.5%
Away win
36.0%
calibrated 11 Nov 23:59
scoring fit λ 1.52 / μ 1.47
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 09 Nov · 207 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
36.0%
2.77x 44.0% n=207 risky
Draw
25.5%
3.93x 44.0% n=207 risky
top Home win
38.5%
2.6x 44.0% n=207 risky
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record · momentum Hetten FC 0.67 ppg vs Mudhar Club 1.33 ppg
Hetten FC · last 6
02 Nov · Division 2 1-4 L
28 Oct · Division 2 2-1 L
09 Apr · Division 2 0-0 D
03 Apr · Division 2 2-1 W
27 Mar · Division 2 1-0 L
13 Mar · Division 2 1-3 L
Mudhar Club · last 6
07 Nov · Division 2 0-2 L
03 Nov · Division 2 2-2 D
28 Oct · Division 2 2-1 L
24 Oct · Division 2 2-2 D
09 Apr · Division 2 0-1 W
03 Apr · Division 2 1-0 W
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.