HOME
Division 2
Arar vs Al Gottah
Fri 13 Nov 14:20 1 day, 13 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 94.3%
why
• league PROVEN (72.3%, n=65)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 72.3% of 65 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 60.4%)
draws 30.0% of matches
team history 5/5 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.0% (n=4539)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 76.6% hit (n=3052)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.3%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
44.4%
Draw
25.7%
Away win
29.9%
calibrated 11 Nov 23:59
scoring fit λ 1.98 / μ 1.62
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 09 Nov · 207 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
29.9%
|
3.34x | 44.0% n=207 | risky |
| Draw |
25.7%
|
3.9x | 44.0% n=207 | risky |
| top Home win |
44.4%
|
2.25x | 44.0% n=207 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Arar 0W / 0D / 1L
· momentum Arar 1.67 ppg vs Al Gottah 0.83 ppg
Arar · last 6
07 Nov · Division 2
0-1
W
02 Nov · Division 2
3-1
L
28 Oct · Division 2
2-2
D
23 Oct · Division 2
0-2
L
16 Oct · Division 2
1-3
W
09 Apr · Division 2
3-2
W
Al Gottah · last 6
07 Nov · Division 2
1-1
D
02 Nov · Division 2
1-4
W
28 Oct · Division 2
0-2
L
23 Oct · Division 2
2-2
D
09 Oct · Division 2
1-3
L
07 Apr · Division 2
3-1
L
Head-to-head last 5
27 Mar 26 · Division 2
Al Gottah 6-4 Arar