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EFL Trophy
Sheffield Wednesday FC vs Accrington ST
Tomorrow 21:00 1 day, 16 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 80.9%
why
• league PROVEN (90.0%, n=10)
• type ledger 75% (n=2256)
league track
proven · 90.0% of 10 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 59.6%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 23/22 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.0% hit (n=2256, 90d ledger)
measured band: 76.5% (n=677)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
80.9%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (80.9%)
@ 09 Nov 02:53
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
53.5%
Draw
19.1%
Away win
27.4%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:53
scoring fit λ 1.54 / μ 0.98
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 131 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
27.4%
|
3.65x | 47.3% n=131 | risky |
| Draw |
19.1%
|
5.24x | 47.3% n=131 | risky |
| top Home win |
53.5%
|
1.87x | 47.3% n=131 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 5 meetings — Sheffield Wed… 3W / 2D / 0L
· momentum Sheffield W… 0.83 ppg vs Accrington … 1.5 ppg
Sheffield Wednesday FC · last 6
08 Nov · FA Cup
2-1
L
01 Nov · League One
1-1
D
27 Oct · League One
1-1
D
24 Oct · League One
2-0
L
20 Oct · League One
2-0
L
17 Oct · League One
5-0
W
Accrington ST · last 6
07 Nov · FA Cup
0-2
L
31 Oct · League Two
1-1
D
24 Oct · League Two
0-5
W
20 Oct · League Two
1-1
D
17 Oct · League Two
3-1
W
10 Oct · League Two
0-0
D
Head-to-head last 5
01 Aug 26 · Friendlies Clubs
Accrington ST 0-0 Sheffield Wedne…
10 Apr 23 · League One
Sheffield Wedne… 3-0 Accrington ST
12 Nov 22 · League One
Accrington ST 0-1 Sheffield Wedne…
15 Mar 22 · League One
Sheffield Wedne… 1-1 Accrington ST
20 Nov 21 · League One
Accrington ST 2-3 Sheffield Wedne…