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Superliga

Randers FC vs FC Nordsjaelland

Sun 08 Nov 17:00 0 minutes final 1–6 · settled
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 93.9%
why
• league PROVEN (74.3%, n=35)
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 74.3% of 35 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 57.9%)
draws 26.7% of matches
team history 20/32 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.6% (n=1945)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.9%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
18.7%
Draw
21.9%
Away win
59.4%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:26
scoring fit λ 1.03 / μ 1.99
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 187 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
top Away win
59.4%
1.68x 50.3% n=187 lean won
Draw
21.9%
4.57x 50.3% n=187 risky lost
Home win
18.7%
5.34x 50.3% n=187 risky lost
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 12 meetings — Randers FC 3W / 2D / 7L · momentum Randers FC 0.17 ppg vs FC Nordsjae… 1.33 ppg
Randers FC · last 6
08 Nov · Superliga 1-6 L
03 Nov · DBU Pokalen 1-0 L
30 Oct · Superliga 2-1 L
23 Oct · Superliga 1-3 L
16 Oct · Superliga 0-0 D
11 Oct · Superliga 0-2 L
FC Nordsjaelland · last 6
08 Nov · Superliga 1-6 W
05 Nov · UEFA Europa Conferenc… 2-0 L
01 Nov · Superliga 2-3 L
28 Oct · DBU Pokalen 0-1 W
25 Oct · Superliga 1-1 D
22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conferenc… 2-2 D
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Superliga Randers FC 1-6 FC Nordsjaelland
02 Aug 26 · Superliga FC Nordsjaelland 1-0 Randers FC
19 Oct 25 · Superliga FC Nordsjaelland 1-0 Randers FC
22 Sep 25 · Superliga Randers FC 3-0 FC Nordsjaelland
02 May 25 · Superliga Randers FC 3-2 FC Nordsjaelland