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Ligue 1

LE Havre AC vs Lorient

Sun 08 Nov 18:15 0 minutes final 0–2 · settled
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 93.5%
why
• league PROVEN (76.7%, n=30)
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 76.7% of 30 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 59.1%)
draws 16.7% of matches
team history 16/15 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2519)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.5%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
33.0%
Draw
28.5%
Away win
38.5%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:24
scoring fit λ 1.27 / μ 1.39
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 448 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
top Away win
38.5%
2.6x 43.8% n=448 risky won
Draw
28.5%
3.51x 43.8% n=448 risky lost
Home win
33.0%
3.03x 43.8% n=448 risky lost
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 23 meetings — LE Havre AC 5W / 9D / 9L · momentum LE Havre AC 0.0 ppg vs Lorient 1.67 ppg
LE Havre AC · last 6
08 Nov · Ligue 1 0-2 L
30 Oct · Ligue 1 1-5 L
25 Oct · Ligue 1 4-3 L
18 Oct · Ligue 1 1-3 L
10 Oct · Ligue 1 1-0 L
19 Sep · Ligue 1 3-2 L
Lorient · last 6
08 Nov · Ligue 1 0-2 W
31 Oct · Ligue 1 0-2 L
25 Oct · Ligue 1 0-0 D
18 Oct · Ligue 1 1-0 W
10 Oct · Ligue 1 1-0 W
19 Sep · Ligue 1 2-1 L
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Ligue 1 LE Havre AC 0-2 Lorient
17 May 26 · Ligue 1 Lorient 0-2 LE Havre AC
21 Sep 25 · Ligue 1 LE Havre AC 1-1 Lorient
28 Jan 24 · Ligue 1 Lorient 3-3 LE Havre AC
28 Jan 24 · Pro League Lorient 3-3 LE Havre AC